Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Carpenter to the Red Sox

The Cubs & Red Sox (not Bud Selig) decided that RP Chris Carpenter is fair compensation for Theo Epstein leaving Boston 1 year before his contract expired. My initial reaction is that the price seems pretty steep. Carpenter has been listed as high as 6th and as low as 15th depending on whose prospect list your reading. He pitched in the majors last year and was expected to be a part of the Cubs bullpen in 2012. I was expecting the compensation player to be a low-level minor leaguer with potential, not a major-league ready arm capable of hitting triple digits on the radar gun.

On the bright side, the strength of the Cubs minor league system is power bullpen arms, so it's not as damaging to the system as losing an SP prospect like McNutt would of been. Carpenter has a great arm, but right now is a two-pitch reliever with control issues. Looking at the big picture, losing a 7th or maybe 8th inning guy for the amount of excitement the new regime has brought to Cubs fans this off-season seems about fair.

Thursday, February 2, 2012

State of the Cubs Minor League System

What a difference a year makes. The combination of an influx of talent from the new regime, the maturation of the old regime's draft picks, and smart international spending has taken the Cubs minor league system from near the bottom of the league to a top 15 farm system. They have anywhere from 3-5 top 100 prospects overall depending on whose lists you trust.

While the Cubs are lacking any sure thing "A" prospects, they have one of the deepest pool of mid-range prospects in the league. Most of these prospects are 1-2 years away from playing at Wrigley, but the future is bright for the Cubs. Here is a breakdown of the strengths and weakness of the Cubs system:

Strengths:

  • Bullpen arms: The Cubs have a surplus of MLB ready (or close) power bullpen arms. Carpenter, Dolis, Beliveau, Weathers, and Lendy Castillo could all see action in the majors this season and there are more arms on the way like Zych, Serrano, & Hatley in the next few years. 
  • Infielders: None are quite MLB ready, but by 2014 the Cubs should have some serious talent coming up the pipe. Rizzo & Vogelbach were recently listed as top 10 first base prospects in the league by Baseball America. At 3B the Cubs have Vitters, Baez, Candeleria, and probably Lake if he keeps growing. In the middle, names like DeVoss, Watkins, Torreyes, and Hernandez are making all the prospect lists.
Weaknesses:
  • Starting Pitching: The Cubs are still lacking a starting pitching prospect who profiles as a legit ace. Maybe they get one in a Garza deal, but that is speculation at this point. McNutt is listed as the Cubs top SP prospect, but if 2011 was any indication he's not the answer. Maples is projected as a #2, but he has yet to pitch in the system. The Cubs do have some solid mid-rotation types (Rhee, Beeler, Wells, Cates) in the lower levels, but a lot of question marks. 
  • Corner Outfielders: The Cubs lack traditional power hitting corner outfielder prospects. Reggie Golden and maybe Michael Burgess are intriguing names, but they still need considerable development before they are ready to play in the big leagues.  If Brett Jackson's power develops and the Cubs sign Cespedes and / or Soler, this point becomes mute.

The Cubs have had strong farm systems in the past that have failed to develop all-star or even starting caliber players, but I haven't been this excited about the Cubs minor league prospects in a long time and I think the Cubs are moving in the right direction. Let the "Build" begin!





Cubs sign Concepcion

One down, two to go! The Cubs signed Cuban pitcher Gerardo Concepcion. The 18 year old lefty reported signed a deal for $7M with the number of years undisclosed as of now. Concepcion projects as a back of the rotation starter. For more info, click below:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/02/cubs-sign-gerardo-concepcion.html


Why not Detwiler?

The Nationals have signed SP Edwin Jackson to a 1-year deal worth approximately $10 Mil.  Adding Jackson to a rotation of Strasburg, Zimmerman, Gonzalez, & Wang probably makes the Nationals favorites in the NL East and also creates a surplus of starting pitching. Before the signing, John Lannon & Ross Detwiler were projected to compete for the 5th spot in the rotation, but now one is expendable.

I've already read a few rumors about the Cubs potentially being interested in a Lannon for Byrd swap. It makes sense for the Nationals since they have a surplus of starting pitching and no clear cut center-fielder, but does it make sense for the Cubs? Do we need another mediocre lefty in his late twenties? Didn't we just sign Maholm?

I think the Cubs should look into acquiring Detwiler instead for three main reasons:

  • Upside: Detwiler fits the post-hype profile that Epstein seems to be targeting this off-season (Stewart, Volstad, Weathers). He was a 1st round pick in 07 (6th overall) and was rated as the 2nd best lefty in that draft after David Price. Detwiler pitched well in limited innings in 2010 (2.27, 10.0,1.9,8.0) at a few minor league levels and was decent in an extended major league look (3.00, 8.6, 2.7, 5.6) in 66 innings last season. 
  • Age: Not a huge difference here, but Lannon is 27 with 751 major league innings on his arm. Detwiler is 25 and has less wear on his arm (172 major league innings). He did have hip surgery in 2010, but has shown no lingering effects. 
  • Cost: Lannon, as a proven commodity, should have a higher price tag then Detwiler. Detwiler is also out of options, so the Nats may be looking to move him anyway if they don't see him as a long reliever. If the Cubs are planning on moving Bryd they may be able to get a prospect as well in a Detwiler deal. I don't want to sound greedy, but Destin Hood would be a nice fit.

If the Cubs are serious about competing this year, Lannon would make more sense and would be a small upgrade at the back of the rotation. If the Cubs are looking more long-term (as I think they are), Detwiler is a guy they can slot at the top of the AAA rotation and give him some time to fine-tune his pitching skills. It also would give the Cubs a major league ready starting pitcher with upside to call up in case of injury. As a fan, I would be more excited about giving Detwiler a chance then the Sonnanstine / Lopez combo we have in reserve right now.

Cubs Top 15 Prospects

My list of the Cubs top 15 prospects:


 - Check back soon for part 2 (16-25)


1.) Anthony Rizzo (1B, 21):  I'm going to focus on his AAA numbers last year (26 HR, 101 RBI, 1.056 OPS in 356 ABs) and not his numbers with the Padres (.523 OPS, 46 Ks in 126 ABs). Petco Park is a notoriously tough place to hit and in hindsight Rizzo probably wasn't ready for the majors. I expect Rizzo to exorcise his Petco demons at Iowa for at least a half-season and hopefully get back on track for the 25-30 home runs with an acceptable average that most sites were projecting for him last year. 


2.) Brett Jackson (CF, 23): A legit 5-tool player even if none of those five tools are considered ++. Despite Jackson's solid numbers in AAA last year (.297/.388/.551), I've heard considerable concern over Jackson's high strikeout totals (138 Ks in 431 ABs). Jackson has always been young for his level and I think as he is exposed to more high level pitching the strike out numbers will go down. 


3.) Javier Baez (SS, 19): The Cubs first round pick in the 2011 draft (9th overall). Baez is rumored to have some emotional baggage, but his bad speed is off the charts and he projects as a middle of the lineup bat. Baez has the throwing arm to play 3B if he outgrows SS.


4.) Matt Szczur (CF, 22): Has the physical tools to be an ideal top of the order hitter, but his approach and defense need some polish. Szczur (pronounced like "scissor") played QB at Vanderbilt in '09, but put up pretty good numbers across two A-levels in his first full season in the system (.293 AVG, 10 HR, 24 ST). One more year of seasoning and I think Szczur will have a shot playing in Wrigley in '13.


5.) Dan Vogelbach (1B, 19): It's hard not to get excited about a guy with ++ power potential. It's also hard for me to be objective after I saw him put on a power display during batting practice at the AFL last year. I know I'm talking about practice, but scouts seem unanimous that his power is legit and his contact rate projects as above average. The main concern with Vogelbach is his weight. He's generously listed at 250 and he's not tall (6'0). Until I see/hear that he can't handle playing at that weight, I'm going to remain optimistic. 

6.) Welington Castillo (C, 24): Castillo put up a solid .287/.359/.516 slash line in AAA last year and has a cannon arm behind the plate. There are concerns that his glove isn't ready for full-time duty yet, but I'm hopeful the Cubs give him a shot to at least back up Soto this year and potentially make him expendable at the deadline. 

7.) Dillon Maples (SP, 21): The Cubs took advantage of the last year of paying over-slot and seemed to get a steal in the 14th round with Maples. His short-arm throwing motion worries some scouts, but his arsenal of pitches is already impressive and scouting reports say he's very polished for his age. I only have him listed this low because he has yet to pitch in the minors. Maples could be much higher on this list after a full season of work

8.) Junior Lake (SS, 21): Has the physical tools to be everyday player in the majors, highlighted by an "80" throwing arm. His approach and fundamentals needs some serious work but take a look at Lake's stats across A+-AA-AFL last year: .285/.324/.470 with 54 steals. Considering that Lake was young for every league he played in, those are impressive numbers. With a year of seasoning and a focus on plate discipline, Lake could move up the list quick. I saw him in the Arizona Fall League and came away impressed. 

9.) Trey McNutt (SP, 22): It's hard to get excited about a guy whose K/9 rate went from 10.2 to 6.2 and whose H/9 jumped from 7.2 to 11.4 in just one season. Maybe he was hurt? He didn't help his cause much by only striking out 8 batters in 18 Arizona Fall League innings. He's still young, so has plenty of time to rediscover the magic, but I'm not getting excited until he starts striking out hitters again. 


10.) Chris Carpenter (RP, 22): I was impressed with Carpenter's stuff during his debut with the Cubs last year. He had some trouble finding the plate, but that can be attributed to nerves, trying too hard, etc. He was electric in the Arizona Fall League and I think he'll be a prominent part of the Cubs bullpen by the end of 2012. With his triple-digit fastball, he has the potential to close for the Cubs down the road if he can iron out his command issues. 


11.) Rafael Dolis (RP, 24): A few statistical red flags (low k rate, high BB rate), but he throws a power sinker in the high 90s and that's pretty rare. His lack of a third pitch will limit him to bullpen duty, but he could be a high-leverage RP for the Cubs by the end of 2012. 

12.) Dae-Eun Rhee (LSP, 22): Just one year removed from TJ surgery, Rhee ended 2011 in dominant fashion posting a 32/5 K/BB ratio over his last 25 innings in high-A. Rhee already has a + change-up and two solid complimentary pitches. He should start the year in AA and if he pitches like he did in late 2011, Rhee could be a candidate for the 2013 rotation with #3 starter upside.


13.) Ben Wells (RSP, 19): Another starter with #3 upside. Wells is a one-trick pony right now, but his one trick is a power sinker that he can locate consistently. He's a few years away, but he has the frame and the sinker to be at worst a successful innings-eater in the majors. 

14.) Ronald Torreyes (2B, 19): Scouting reports are all over the place on Torreyes. I've seen him listed in a top 100 overall list and I've seen him left off of a few Cubs top prospect lists? I think the discrepancy has to due with his diminutive size. There aren't a lot of 5-7, 150 pound major league players out there, but if Torreyes continues to hit at the .364 clip he's put up over his first two seasons, he'll make it to the show. If Torreyes has another impressive year with the bat or grows a little (he's only 19), he'll move up this list quick. 


15.) Josh Vitters (3B, 22): Can he develop plate discipline? On the plus side, he's only 22 and his contact rate is outstanding (54 Ks in 449 ABs). On the negative side he had a 4-1 K/BB ratio, which would be great for a pitcher but not for a corner infielder who only hit 14 home runs. I'm doubtful that Vitters is ever going to be the star he was once projected as, but he could still be a serviceable major leaguer if he learns to take a pitch or two and his power spikes a little. 

*This list is based on multiple reports from the experts, statistical analysis,  limited live scouting, and my very subjective "gut" feeling.







Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Cubs Offseason Recap (Minors edition)

Here is an overview of the new players in the Cubs organization that will most likely start the season in the minor leagues. They are listed in order of potential long-term impact. I have added a prospect grade if applicable (via John Sickels from Minor League Ball)


Anthony Rizzo (1B, 22, B+):
Acquired: Trade with Padres
I'm going to focus on his AAA numbers last year (26 HR, 101 RBI, 1.056 OPS in 356 ABs) and not his numbers with the Padres (.523 OPS, 46 Ks in 126 ABs). Most sites project Rizzo as a 30+ home run hitter with a decent average and a solid glove. I would be happy with that!

Ronald Torreyes (2B,19, C+):
Acquired: Trade with Reds
Scouting reports are all over the place on Torreyes. I've seen him in two different top 100 overall lists and I've seen him left off of the Cubs top 20 prospect lists! I think the discrepancy has to due with his diminutive size. They're aren't a lot of 5-7, 150 pound major leaguers out there, but I have a hunch Theo sees a little of Pedroia in Torreyes. Whether he ends up growing or not, Torreyes has hit .365 over 2 minor league systems and if he keeps that up he will make the bigs eventually.

Dave Sappelt (OF, 25, C+):
Acquired: Trade with Reds
Sappelt doesn't have any tool that really stands out. He's fast but not a great base-stealer (59% career success rate). Despite the lack of any "plus" tools, Sappelt has hit very well in his last two minor league stops. He was the Southern League MVP in 2010 (.902 OPS, 25 steals) and should of broke camp with the Reds in 2011 after hitting .564 in spring training, but we all know how Dusty feels about rookies. Sappelt has a legit shot to make the opening day roster for the Cubs if they clear some room in the outfield by finding a taker for Soriano (fingers-crossed) or Bryd (mixed-feelings).

Zach Cates (SP, 22, C+):
Acquired: Trade with Padres
Underrated part of the Rizzo/Cashner deal. Cates is a converted catcher who is still learning how to pitch, but has a mid 90s fastball and put up good peripheral stats in his first full season (8.5 K/9, 0.3 HR/9). He's a few years away from the majors, but is an arm to watch in the Cubs system.

Casey Weathers (RP, 26):
Acquired: Trade with Rockies
Weathers was the 8th pick in the 2006 draft but missed the 2009 season with TJ surgery and has struggled with his control since (9.5 BB/9 last year). Weathers can still bring the heat and strike people out though (9.5 K/9) and he could be a valuable bullpen arm for the Cubs if he can cut down on the free passes. 

Lendy Castillo (RP,22):
Acquired: Rule 5 draft, Phillies
Castillo would need to make the team out of spring training unless the Cubs can work out some compensation for the Phillies. He was bordeline dominant in A (2.54 era, 9 K/9, 7.2 H/9), but it's a long way from Lakewood (A) to Wrigley Field. Castillo is a sleeper but if he pitches well in spring training look for the Cubs to find a way to keep him.

Manny Corpas (RP, 29):
Acquired: FA
Corpas was an elite reliever in 2007 (19 SVs, 7.3 H/9) but never recreated that success in the following years and then missed the entire 2011 season recovering from TJ surgery. Corpas should spend the first half of the year at Iowa with a potential trip to the majors if he can come close to regaining his 2007 form.

Andy Sonnanstine (SP/RP, 29): 
Acquired: FA
Journeyman from the Rays organization who was once considered a top prospect for the Rays. Sonnanstine pitched well his first two major league seasons due to only allowing 1.7 BB/9 in 07 & 08 over 52 starts. Since then, he lost his pinpoint control (3 BB/9) and has struggled with the gopher ball (career 1.3 HR/9). Sonnanstine fits into the 8-9 major league ready SPs the Cubs want available in 2012, but I don't expect more then a servicable 5th starter.

Joe Mather (OF, 29):
Acquired: FA
One of my favorite under the radar signings. Mather was a top prospect with the Cardinals in 09 after putting up a 1.041 OPS for the Cards AAA affiliate. Mather didn't do much in two brief stints with the Cards over the last two seasons and is considered a Quad A player even though he's never gotten over 100 ABs in a season. If Mather rakes during spring training or starts out hot at Iowa, he could get a shot with the Cubs as a back-up outfielder.

Trever Miller (LRP, 36)
Acquired: FA
Miller put up a respectable 3.81 ERA last year, but had problems throwing strikes (5.1 BB/9) and gave up over a hit per (10.5 H/9) in 21 innings with three teams. His last good season was 2009 (0.96 WHIP & 4.15 K/BB) so unless the Cubs catch lighting in a bottle, Miller will provide LH depth at Iowa. If none of the Cubs young lefty arms (Gaub, Maine, Beliveau) pan out, Miller could see some action in the bigs.

Yasiel Balaguert (OF,19): 
Acquired: FA
Cuban with "modest tools" and a few holes in his swing. Possibly his best tool is that he played next to Jorge Soler in Cuba. I have no idea if they are friends or not, but it can't hurt to have a familiar face in the dugout if the Cubs are trying to woo Soler as rumored.

Carlos Martinez (RP,20): 
Acquired: FA
Cuban RP with a low 90s fastball and average breaking stuff. Hopefully BP comes out with a Cuban prospect handbook soon (jk).

Alfredo Amezaga (MI/CF, 29):
Acquired: FA
How many MIs to we need at Iowa? I like Amezaga more then Tolbert or Gonzalez due to his position flexibility and speed (41 SBs with Marlins between 06-08), but not expecting much more then a league-average utility guy.

Matt Tolbert (MI, 29):
Acquired: FA
With a .607 OPS over 4 years with the Twins, Tolbert didn't get signed for his bat. He is solid with the glove and can play anywhere in the infield. I would of rather the Cubs gone with a guy with a little more offensive upside like Russ Canzler, but Tolbert will provide solid positional depth at Iowa.

Edgar Gonzalez (MI,33):
Acquired: FA
Pretty similar player to Tolbert with maybe a little more pop. Seems redundant.

Jason Jaramillo (C, 29):
Acquired: FA
Another limited upside "baseball player" type that Epstein seems to like. After years of fundamentally flawed Cubs, I'm not complaining. Jaramillo could see some time in the majors if Soto gets dealt or neither of the top catcher prospects (Castillo,Clevenger) are ready.

Rodrigo Lopez (SP, 36):
Acquired: FA
Ugh. Not again!

Bobby Scales (UT, 34):
Acquired: FA
I'm glad Epstein brought back fan favorite Scales even if it's just for a crash course in coaching. Scales has a career .809 OPS over 13 minor league seasons and may be able to provide some pop off the bench if called up to Wrigley.

Jeff Bianchi (MI, 26):
Acquired: FA
Released and claimed by Brewers